Depopulation a surefire formula for national ruin
July 17 ? Japan Today

7 月 17 日 发表于:今日日本网站
原创翻译:龙腾网 转载请注明出处

TOKYO-- talk about depressing headlines: "A great prophesy of Japan's demise. The frightening result of depopulation."


First of all, let's look at a paper on population statistics from the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare issued on June 3. After noting that 811,604 new infants were born in Japan during 2021, it pointed out that the average number of births per female had dropped for the sixth straight year, to 1.30.
"Twenty years from now, we'll be looking at a shortfall of 2 million care providers for the elderly," predicts professor Masahiro Yamada of Chuo University. "To fill that number would require half of the nation's new graduates every year. Paying costs for care won't be difficult for the wealthy, but for the rest, it won't be feasible. We'll be faced with the choice of either reducing services or relying on foreign labor; but as Japan becomes poorer, I don't know how we'll get foreign workers to come here."
The present situation, of elderly people caring for other elderly, has become a common occurrence, and this can only get worse, frets the writer, so increasing cases of kodokushi (dying alone) can be expected.
On May 7, Tesla CEO Elon Musk -- not exactly a Japan expert -- made headlines with a tweet that read, "At the risk of stating the obvious, unless something changes to cause the birthrate to exceed the death rate, Japan will eventually cease to exist. This would be a great loss for the world."

首先,让我们看一下厚生劳动省6月3日发布的人口统计数据。在注意到2021年日本有811,604名新生儿出生后,它指出每名女性的平均出生人数连续第六年下降至 1.30。
“从现在开始的 20 年后,我们将面临 200 万个为老年人提供护理人员的缺口,”中央大学的山田雅弘教授预测。“要填补这个数字,需要每年全国一半的应届大学毕业生。支付护理费用对富人来说并不难,但对于其余的人来说,这将是难以承受的。我们将面临选择要么减少服务,要么依赖外国劳动力;但随着日本变得更穷,我不知道我们将如何让外国工人来这里。”
5 月 7 日,特斯拉的首席执行官埃隆·马斯克(他并不是日本情况的专家)以一条推文登上了头条,上面写着:“冒着显而易见的风险,除非有什么改变导致出生率超过死亡率,否则日本最终将不复存在。这将是世界的巨大损失。”

Part of the looming problem will be caused by the huge demographic bulge of the postwar baby boomers, born between 1947 to 1949, who are now turning 75 years of age. With the decline in hospital beds, as people in this group begin to die out, 400,000 or more stand to become "refugees with no place to die."
If the present trend continues, by 2040, Japan will have become a "super-aged society," in which the burden of supporting an elderly person will fall on one out of every 1.5 households.
While numerous factors figure in population decline, one of the main causes is clearly shortsighted policies aimed at encouraging families to procreate. According to a survey by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), in 2017, Japan's outlays for child rearing relative to GDP were 1.79% -- below the OECD member average of 2.34% and, for example, less than half of the 3.6% spent by France.

迫在眉睫的问题的部分原因将是战后婴儿潮一代的巨大人口膨胀,他们出生于 1947 年至 1949 年之间,现在已经 75 岁了。随着病床的减少,随着这一群体的人开始去世,40万或更多人将成为“无处可去的难民”。
如果按照目前的趋势继续下去,到 2040 年,日本将成为“超高龄社会”,每 1.5 户家庭中就有一人要承担赡养老人的负担。
虽然人口下降的因素很多,但主要原因之一显然是在鼓励家庭生育的政策性短视。根据经济合作与发展组织的一项调查,2017 年,日本的育儿支出占 GDP 的比重为 1.79%,低于经合组织成员国 2.34% 的平均水平,例如,还不到法国投入3.6%的一半。

"Take Hungary, for example, which to deal with a decline in births devotes just under 5% of its GDP to families," points out the aforementioned professor Yamada. "School tuition there is free, and home purchases are generously subsidized. In the case a fourth child is born, the family's taxes are permanently exempted.
"For Japan to match European countries in measures to encourage the birth rate, it would need to devote a quarter of its national budget," he added.
What's the main cause of decline in the country's birthrate? As Yamada puts it, "There have only been small, incremental changes in Japan's societal values from its postwar period of high economic growth, when the prevailing view was, 'the husbands went to work, and the wives remained home and did housework.'"
The magazine noted that in the run-up to the July 10 elections, none of the major parties proposed any new changes to their population policies, so whichever party wins will be moot. Japan, clearly, has embarked on a road to ruin.

“以匈牙利为例,为了应对出生率下降,该国将 5% 的 GDP 用于家庭,”山田教授指出。“那里的学费是免费的,买房有慷慨的补贴。如果生了第四个孩子,家庭就可以永远免税。”
我国出生率下降的主要原因是什么?正如山田所说,“日本的社会价值观在战后经济高速增长时期只发生了微小的渐进式变化,当时流行的观点是‘丈夫去工作,妻子留在家里做家务’。 "
该杂志指出,在 7 月 10 日选举前夕,没有一个主要政党提议对其人口政策进行任何新的改变,因此无论哪个政党获胜都将是没有实际意义的。显然,日本已经走上了毁灭之路。